TYRA

ANALYST NOTE: TYRA BIOSCIENCES, INC. DATE: 2026-06-13 SUBJECT: Structural Setup and Thesis Assessment

1. Structural Readiness

State: Forming Aggressive/Pre-Breakout Entry: — (Current price action is within the forming range) Breakout Level: — (Awaiting price action to confirm) Current Price: $28.32 Extension: — (No extension data provided; price is within the forming range) ATR Current: 6.8% (Very High)

Structural Interpretation:

2. The Thesis Layer

Primary Secular Thesis: Biotech & GLP-1 → Oncology (Tier Direct) Thesis Weighting: High Confidence

TYRA is a direct beneficiary of the secular theme of Precision Oncology, specifically targeting FGFR3-altered malignancies. The company's role is that of a clinical-stage innovator developing next-generation precision medicines.

• Directness: The thesis is highly direct. The company's pipeline is exclusively focused on FGFR biology, a validated driver in large market opportunities including urothelial cancers and skeletal dysplasia.
• Additional Tailwinds: While the primary exposure is Oncology, the company also addresses genetically defined conditions (ACH), which provides a secondary secular tailwind in rare disease therapeutics. The convergence of these two areas (large market oncology + orphan disease) creates a dual-engine growth narrative, though the oncology driver (FGFR3+ bladder cancer) represents the larger addressable market.

3. The Business

Company Overview: Tyra Biosciences, Inc. is a clinical-stage biotechnology company focused on developing next-generation precision medicines for large opportunities in targeted oncology and genetically defined conditions. The company leverages its proprietary SNAP platform to accelerate structural drug design through an iterative molecular "snapshot" approach.

Business Model & Industry:

• Industry: Healthcare / Biotechnology.
• Model: R&D-driven development of small molecule inhibitors. The company advances a pipeline of programs targeting specific genetic aberrations (FGFR3, FGFR2, RET, FGFR4).
• Flagship Asset: TYRA-300 (dabogratinib), a highly selective inhibitor of FGFR3.

Supporting Evidence (As of 2026-06-13):

• Oncology Pipeline (SURF303 & SURF302):
• SURF303 (LG-UTUC): An open-label Phase 2a/b trial evaluating oral dabogratinib (60 mg and 80 mg QD) in FGFR3-altered low-grade upper tract urothelial carcinoma. Approximately 85% of these tumors are driven by FGFR3.
• SURF302 (IR NMIBC): An open-label Phase 2 trial evaluating dabogratinib (50 mg and 60 mg QD) in FGFR3-altered low-grade IR NMIBC. Approximately 70% of these tumors are driven by FGFR3. As of the May 13, 2026 filing, over 20 patients were enrolled, with initial three-month complete response data expected in August 2026.
• Rare Disease Pipeline (BEACH301):
• ACH (Achondroplasia): An open-label Phase 2 dose-escalation trial in children (ages 3-10) with open growth plates. Approximately 99% of ACH cases are driven by FGFR3.
• Status: As of March 2, 2026, the company had cleared the first two doses and was dosing at the third safety sentinel level (0.375 mg/kg). Initial safety sentinel data (6-month average height velocity) is expected in the second half of 2026.
• Market Opportunity:
• Management estimates approximately 80,000 FGFR3+ patients in the US annually, including ~3,000 LG-UTUC and ~35,000 IR NMIBC patients.
• In 2025, approximately 185,000 US patients sought therapy for first-time treatment or recurrence across LG-UTUC and bladder cancer.
• Addressable pediatric population: ~3,000 in the US and ~23,000 worldwide.

4. The Archetype and Conviction

Archetype: Deep Value Recovery Rationale: The company fits the Deep Value Recovery archetype. It is a clinical-stage biotech with a validated platform and a clear path to registrational trials (SURF303) and potential commercialization. The "value" component is derived from the market's potential to re-rate the company as it moves from early clinical data to registrational milestones, particularly given the large addressable market (80,000+ patients) and the high unmet need in FGFR3-driven cancers.

Conviction Stack:

• Thesis Strength: High. The FGFR3 target is validated, and the company has a focused pipeline with clear differentiation (oral, selective inhibitor).
• Evidence Quality: Strong. Multiple Phase 2 trials are active with specific data readout dates (August 2026 for SURF302, H2 2026 for BEACH301).
• Rerating Potential: High. The transition from Phase 2 data to Phase 3 or registrational readiness is a classic catalyst for biotech rerating.
• Financial Spine: The company reports a forward consensus EPS of -2.62 (FY1) and -2.84 (FY2), indicating continued investment. However, management states (as of March 31, 2026) that cash and equivalents are sufficient to fund operations into the second half of 2028, providing a runway that mitigates near-term dilution risk.

5. Invalidation, Strengthening, and Gaps

What Would Invalidate the Case:

• Clinical Invalidation: Failure to meet efficacy endpoints in the SURF302 or SURF303 trials (e.g., lack of complete response in NMIBC or UTUC).
• Safety Invalidation: Unacceptable safety signals in the BEACH301 pediatric trial (e.g., failure to achieve height velocity or severe adverse events).
• Capital Invalidation: A sudden announcement of a capital raise or partnership that significantly dilutes shareholders or indicates a cash crunch before H2 2028.

What Would Strengthen the Case:

• Clinical Success: Positive top-line data from SURF302 (August 2026) or BEACH301 (H2 2026).
• Partnership: Announcement of a strategic collaboration or licensing deal for dabogratinib.

Gaps in the Evidence Base:

• Phase 3 Data: No evidence of Phase 3 trial initiation or design is present as of June 2026; the company is still in Phase 2.
• Revenue: No revenue is currently generated; the business model is entirely pre-commercial.

PRIVATE ANALYST CALL

Judgment: Speculative Confidence: medium Key risks: 1) Clinical trial failure in SURF302 or BEACH301; 2) Very high ATR (6.8%) indicates elevated volatility and potential for sharp downside if structure breaks; 3) No revenue generation; 4) Structural setup is "forming" not "confirmed," requiring a breakout for full conviction. Sizing hint: Position size should be conservative relative to the "very high" ATR and the binary nature of the upcoming clinical catalysts. Expected path: Management expects to report initial three-month CR data from SURF302 in August 2026 and safety sentinel data from BEACH301 in H2 2026. If data is positive, the stock may transition from a forming coil to a confirmed breakout. Expected horizon: 6 to 12 months (aligned with the August 2026 and H2 2026 data readouts).