RACE

ANALYST NOTE: RACE (Ferrari N.V.) Date: 2026-06-20 Current Price: 362.13

1. Structural Readiness

State: Forming Conservative Entry: — (Awaiting confirmed breakout) Aggressive/Pre-Breakout Entry: — (Not actionable on setup alone; requires confirmation) Breakout Level: — (Pending price action to define the structural resistance) Current Price: 362.13 Extension: — (No extension data provided; price is currently within the consolidation range)

2. Thesis Layer

Thesis Status: TACTICAL / Setup-Led Macro Thesis: None named at this date. Analysis: As of June 20, 2026, RACE is not being analyzed through a specific secular macro lens (e.g., "EV transition leader" or "luxury recession hedge"). The investment case is strictly derived from the quality of the technical setup (the forming coil) combined with the underlying business fundamentals. The conviction must be weighed entirely on the structural integrity of the price action and the strength of the operational evidence provided in the 2025/2026 filings, without inventing external narratives.

3. Business Fundamentals

Company Overview: Ferrari N.V. operates as a luxury automotive manufacturer with a business model predicated on controlled volume, brand exclusivity, and high-margin sales. The company manages a diversified product portfolio across internal combustion, hybrid, and electric powertrains. Industry: Luxury Automotive / High-End Consumer Discretionary. Key Operational Evidence (as of 2026-06-20):

• Product Pipeline & Deliveries: Management has executed a record product cycle. In 2026, the company is launching an average of four new models, with a total of seven new models entering production and distribution phases throughout the year (E3, E4, E8). This includes the world premiere of the "Ferrari Luce" in May 2026 (E2) and the ramp-up of the F80 and other new models (E7).
• Financial Performance (2025 Actuals): The company concluded its previous business plan one year ahead of schedule. 2025 Net Revenues reached €7,146 million, a 7.0% increase year-over-year (E13). Operating profit (EBIT) grew 11.8% to €2,110 million, with operating margins expanding to 29.5% from 28.3% in 2024 (E14).
• Volume Strategy: Shipments have stabilized at approximately 13,640 units in 2025, following a gradual increase from 7,255 units in 2014 (E9). This reflects a deliberate "controlled volume strategy" to maintain exclusivity.
• Customer Loyalty: Approximately 84% of new car sales in 2025 were to existing owners, with 56% being multi-car owners, reinforcing the brand's deep loyalty and expanding addressable market (E10, E15).
• Capital Allocation: A new multi-year share repurchase program of €3.5 billion was announced for execution from 2026 to 2030, alongside an increase in the dividend payout ratio to 40% of Adjusted Net Profit starting from 2025 results (E11).

4. Archetype and Conviction

Archetype: Quality Compounder Fit Analysis: The company fits the "Quality Compounder" archetype due to its consistent margin expansion (EBIT margin rising to 29.5%), disciplined capital allocation (buybacks and dividends), and the ability to grow revenue while maintaining strict volume controls. The business model is a "margin inflector" driven by product mix improvements (new models like the F80 and Luce) rather than volume expansion. Conviction Stack:

• Thesis Strength: Moderate (Tactical/Setup-led, no macro tailwind named).
• Evidence Quality: High. The evidence base is robust, citing specific 2025 financial results, 2026 guidance, and concrete product launch schedules.
• Structural Quality: Positive. The forming coil indicates a consolidation phase that has held support, suggesting underlying strength.
• Setup Readiness: Partial. The setup is "Forming," meaning it is a watch-list candidate but not yet a confirmed entry.
• Rerating Potential: Dependent on the successful execution of the 2026 product ramp-up and the market's reaction to the new capital return program.

Volatility Context:

• Current ATR: 3.1% (Productive). This sits within the "productive" range, indicating sufficient volatility for position sizing without being in the "extreme" (>8%) or "weak" (<2.5%) buckets.
• ATR at Breakout: — (Not yet established).

5. Invalidations, Strengths, and Gaps

What Would Strengthen the Case:

• Management reiterating or raising the 2026 delivery guidance during the upcoming quarter, confirming the "consistent growth" assumption (E7).
• Continued margin expansion in the Q2 2026 results, validating the "positive product mix" thesis.

What Would Invalidate the Case:

• A significant miss in 2026 delivery numbers or a delay in the launch of key models (e.g., Ferrari Luce or F80) that disrupts the 2026 growth narrative.
• A contraction in operating margins below the 29% level, suggesting the product mix is not delivering the expected premium.

Gaps in Evidence:

• Breakout Confirmation: The specific price level required to trigger the "Confirmed" state is not yet defined.
• 2026 Q1/Q2 Actuals: While 2025 full-year data is available, specific quarterly performance for 2026 (Jan-May) is not detailed in the provided evidence, leaving a small gap in the immediate momentum verification.

PRIVATE ANALYST CALL

Judgment: Buy Confidence: medium Key evidence: 2025 operating margin expansion to 29.5% and record 7 new models entering production in 2026; 84% of sales to existing owners reinforcing brand loyalty; €3.5 billion buyback program announced for 2026-2030. Key risks: Execution risk on the 2026 model ramp-up (F80, Luce); potential global macro uncertainty impacting ultra-high-net-worth demand; technical setup remains "forming" and not yet confirmed. Sizing hint: Position size should reflect the "forming" status; smaller than a confirmed breakout position, sized to allow for the volatility of a 3.1% ATR environment. Expected path: Management expects consistent growth in 2026 driven by the new product mix; if the forming coil resolves to the upside, the capital return program and margin discipline should support a re-rating. Expected horizon: 3 to 6 months for the setup to resolve (breakout or invalidation) and for the 2026 product cycle to fully impact delivery numbers.