PAX

ANALYST NOTE: PAX (Patria Investments Limited) Date: 2026-06-13 Current Price: $11.37

1. Structural Readiness

State: Context-Only Conservative Entry: — Breakout Level: — Extension: — ATR Current: 3.4% (Productive)

Analysis:

2. Thesis Layer

Thesis Status: Tactical / Setup-Led Macro Thesis: None Named

Analysis: At this date, PAX is classified as a TACTICAL, setup-led name. There is no named secular thesis (e.g., "Global Infrastructure Super-Cycle" or "LatAm Digital Transformation") explicitly attached to the setup in the current evidence base. The investment case must be judged strictly on the quality of the business fundamentals and the readiness of the technical setup, rather than a macro narrative. Management expectations regarding fundraising and fee growth provide the fundamental backdrop, but no specific secular theme is currently driving the conviction stack.

3. The Business

Company Profile: Patria Investments Limited is a public holding company controlled by Patria Holdings Limited, operating as a private markets investment firm. The firm is headquartered in Grand Cayman but maintains principal operations and investment focus in Latin America.

Business Model & Operations: The company generates revenue through management fees and performance fees (carried interest) on a diverse portfolio of investment vehicles. These vehicles include private equity funds, infrastructure development funds, co-investment funds, constructivist equity funds, and dedicated real estate and credit funds.

Key Fundamentals (as of May 2026):

• Fee-Earning AUM: Reached $45.8 billion as of the first quarter of 2026, representing a 12% increase from Q4 2025 and a 31% year-over-year increase.
• Fundraising Momentum: Total fundraising for the quarter was $2.1 billion, keeping the company on track to achieve its full-year guidance of $7 billion.
• Pipeline Strength: Pending fee-earning AUM (capital committed but not yet deployed) increased approximately 17% to $3.3 billion.
• Vertical Performance:
• Credit: Raised over $925 million across various strategies, driven by strong local investor demand.
• Infrastructure: Raised over $545 million, supported by sustained demand from global institutional investors.
• Strategic Acquisitions:
• RBR Gestão: Acquired in December 2025, holding $1.3 billion in Fee-Earning AUM listed Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs).
• WP Global Partners: Acquired in February 2026, a U.S.-based private equity solutions manager focused on the lower-middle market, with offices in New York and Chicago.
• Financial Guidance: Management expects to achieve full-year Fee-Related Earnings (FRE) of $225 million to $245 million and maintains a long-term FRE margin target of 58% to 60%.

4. Archetype and Conviction

Archetype: Growth Leader Rationale: PAX fits the Growth Leader archetype based on the evidence of accelerating Fee-Earning AUM (31% YoY), robust fundraising ($2.1B in one quarter), and strategic M&A activity (RBR and WP) that expands its geographic and sectoral footprint. The company is demonstrating the ability to scale its fee base while maintaining high margins (58-60% target).

Valuation & Conviction Stack:

• Evidence Quality: High. The evidence base is robust, featuring primary earnings transcripts and SEC filings from April/May 2026.
• Structural Quality: The business model is capital-light (management fees) with high operating leverage, evidenced by the strong FRE margins.
• Rerating Potential: Moderate to High, contingent on the successful integration of the WP and RBR acquisitions and the realization of the $7 billion fundraising guidance.

5. Invalidation, Strengthening, and Gaps

What Would Strengthen the Case:

• Confirmation of the $7 billion full-year fundraising target.
• Successful integration of WP Global Partners and RBR Gestão into the fee base.
• A technical breakout above a defined resistance level with volume confirmation (currently missing).
• Maintenance of the 58-60% FRE margin guidance despite M&A integration costs.

What Would Invalidate the Case:

• A significant miss on the $7 billion fundraising guidance.
• A sustained decline in Fee-Earning AUM or a failure to deploy the $3.3 billion in pending capital.
• Deterioration in the Latin American macro environment impacting the core credit and infrastructure verticals.

Gaps in Evidence:

• Conservative Entry: No specific entry price is identified.
• Breakout Confirmation: No breakout has fired; the setup is not active.
• Sector/Industry Classification: While "Private Markets Investment Firm" is known, specific sector/industry tags for the setup framework are missing.

PRIVATE ANALYST CALL

Judgment: Speculative Confidence: medium Key evidence: Fee-earning AUM grew 31% YoY to $45.8 billion; Fundraising of $2.1B in Q1 2026 keeps company on track for $7B full-year guidance; Strategic acquisitions of RBR and WP expand fee base and geographic reach. Sizing hint: Position size should be conservative given the lack of a defined technical setup, relying on fundamental conviction rather than structural risk/reward. Expected path: Management expects to close the year with $7B in fundraising and $225M-$245M in FRE; successful integration of acquired managers should expand the fee base further. Expected horizon: 12 to 18 months for the strategic acquisitions to fully contribute to the fee base and for the fundraising cycle to mature. Failure mode to watch: A failure to meet the $7 billion fundraising guidance or a significant drawdown in Fee-Earning AUM.