MMYT

ANALYST NOTE: MMYT (MakeMyTrip Limited) Date: 2026-06-13 Current Price: $46.72

1. Structural Readiness

• Conservative Entry: Not yet actionable (requires confirmed breakout above the coil high).
• Aggressive/Pre-Breakout Entry: $46.72 (Current Price). This represents a partial coil-readiness signal.
• Breakout Level: Not yet established (requires price to close above the coil resistance).
• Current Price: $46.72.
• Extension: Not applicable (price is within the coil range, not extended above the breakout).
• ATR Context: Current ATR is 5.9% (High). This indicates elevated volatility, which is consistent with a forming coil in a high-growth sector but requires careful position sizing.

2. Thesis Layer

• Thesis Status: TACTICAL / SETUP-LED
• Macro Thesis: There is NO named secular thesis attached to this specific setup at this date. The investment case is not driven by a broad macro narrative (e.g., "India's consumption boom" as a standalone thesis) but is judged strictly on the quality of the structural setup and the company's fundamental execution.
• Conviction Weighting: Conviction is derived from the alignment of the "Margin Inflector" archetype with the evidence of operational leverage and booking growth, rather than a top-down macro call.

3. The Business

MakeMyTrip Limited operates as a prominent online travel platform with a diverse global footprint, including India, the US, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, UAE, Peru, Colombia, Vietnam, and Indonesia. The company serves both individual vacationers and business clients through three key segments: Air Ticketing, Hotels and Packages, and Bus Ticketing.

Key Operational Metrics (as of FY '26 / Q1 FY '27 context):

• Gross Bookings: The company reported a record $10.4 billion in gross bookings for fiscal year '26, up from $6.6 billion in FY '23, compounding at roughly 34% over four years.
• Accommodation Reach: The platform now hosts over 100,000 accommodation options across 2,050 cities. In the last year alone, the company sold room nights for over 12,000 new properties.
• Bus Ticketing: Bus ticketing volumes grew by 27.6% year-on-year for the quarter and 32.9% for the full year.
• Myra (AI Assistant): The AI assistant "Myra" assisted over 200,000 bookings directly during the quarter.
• Financial Performance:
• IFRS Revenue: Grew by 10.7% Y-o-Y in constant currency.
• Operating Profit (EBIT): Reached $156 million in FY '26, a 30.1% Y-o-Y increase.
• Margins: Adjusted operating profit margin expanded to 1.82% of gross bookings in FY '26, up from 1.71% in FY '25.
• Strategic Acquisitions: In February 2025, the company acquired "HAPPAY," a corporate travel and expense management business, to expand its B2B capabilities.
• Market Context: Management notes that the middle-income household segment in India (income $4,500–$35,000) is growing at a high single-digit rate, expected to expand from 200 million (2022) to 300 million (2032). Additionally, the number of operational airports in India is expected to expand from 157 (2024) to 400 by 2027, facilitating travel to Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities.

4. Archetype and Conviction

• Archetype: Margin Inflector
• *Fit:* The company is demonstrating the ability to scale revenue (34% booking CAGR) while simultaneously expanding operating margins (1.71% to 1.82%) and EBIT (30% growth). This indicates that the business model is moving from a pure growth-at-all-costs phase to a phase of operational leverage, where incremental revenue contributes disproportionately to profit.
• Valuation Context:
• Forward consensus EPS is $0.43683 (FY1) and $0.49314 (FY2).
• At a price of $46.72, the stock trades at approximately 107x FY1 EPS and 95x FY2 EPS. This suggests a high valuation multiple that prices in significant future growth.
• Conviction Stack:
• Thesis Strength: Moderate (Tactical, no macro thesis).
• Evidence Quality: High (Strong earnings transcript data, clear growth metrics).
• Structural Quality: Moderate (Forming coil, high volatility).
• Rerating Potential: Dependent on the confirmation of the breakout and sustained margin expansion.

5. Invalidations, Strengths, and Gaps

• What Would Strengthen: A confirmed breakout above the coil resistance level, accompanied by a volume surge. Continued margin expansion beyond 1.82% would further validate the inflection.
• Gaps in Evidence:
• Currency Sensitivity: While FX sensitivity is noted ($19.7M profit impact for 10% USD appreciation), the current FX rate and its specific impact on the FY '26 results are not detailed beyond the sensitivity analysis.
• Competitive Landscape: No specific data on market share shifts or competitor pricing pressure is provided in the evidence.

PRIVATE ANALYST CALL

Judgment: Speculative Confidence: medium Key evidence: Record $10.4B gross bookings in FY '26 with 34% CAGR; Operating profit margin expansion to 1.82% of gross bookings; Bus ticketing volume growth of 32.9% full-year. Key risks: High valuation multiple (approx. 100x forward EPS) pricing in perfection; Elevated ATR (5.9%) indicating high volatility and potential for sharp drawdowns; Currency sensitivity where a 10% USD appreciation could reduce profit by $19.7M. Sizing hint: Position size should be reduced relative to a confirmed breakout setup due to the "forming" status and high volatility. Expected path: Management expects continued expansion of airport infrastructure to 400 by 2027 and growth in the middle-income segment to 300 million by 2032, driving further booking volume and margin leverage. Expected horizon: 3 to 6 months for the structural setup to resolve (breakout or invalidation).