KYIV

ANALYST NOTE: KYIV (Kyivstar Group Ltd.) Date: 2026-06-20 Current Price: $14.16

1. Structural Readiness

State: Context-only Conservative Entry: — Breakout Level: — Extension: — ATR Current: 3.4% (Productive)

Analysis:

2. Thesis Layer

Thesis Status: Tactical / Setup-Led Secular Exposure: None

There is no named secular thesis attached to KYIV as of 2026-06-20. This is a tactical, setup-led name. The investment case must be judged strictly on the quality of the technical setup (which is currently undefined) and the immediate business fundamentals derived from the most recent filings. No macro narrative (e.g., "Ukraine Reconstruction," "Digital Sovereignty") is being applied as a conviction driver in this analysis. The absence of a named thesis means the name carries no structural secular tailwinds in the StoryStocks framework; it is a pure play on operational resilience and cost management in a war zone.

3. Business Analysis

Company Profile: Kyivstar Group Ltd. is a leading telecommunications provider and digital business operating in Ukraine. The company's core business model involves providing mobile, fixed-line, and data services to residential and corporate customers, heavily reliant on maintaining network uptime in a conflict environment.

Operational Context & Evidence (Source: 2026-03-16 SEC Filings):

• War Impact & Resilience: Management explicitly states, "As a leading telecommunications provider and digital business in Ukraine, we are affected in many ways by the war." Despite this, the company has demonstrated significant operational resilience. As of December 31, 2025, approximately 5% of the combined network had been damaged or destroyed since the full-scale invasion began, with 82% of that damage restored.
• Infrastructure Investment: To maintain service continuity, the company funded the installation of approximately 3,740 generators (stationary, mobile, and third-party) and 252,000 additional batteries for backup capacity as of December 31, 2025.
• Cost Management: Security and mitigation costs have shown improvement. Costs related to security, fuel, batteries, and energy independence measures were US$34 million (UAH 1,400 million) for the year ended December 31, 2025, a decrease from US$49 million (UAH 2,025 million) in 2024.
• Insurance Recovery: In Q4 2025, the company received a payout of approximately US$10 million from voluntary property damage and business interruption insurance policies.
• Regulatory Headwinds: Management expects revenue pressure from the "Roam Like at Home" Regulation. As of January 1, 2026, Ukraine joined the single roaming area, and management expects "the decline in rates charged to Ukrainian customers as a result of the regulation to continue to affect our revenue generation."
• Input Cost Inflation: The blended electricity tariff increased by 19.5% in 2025, following increases of 27.3% in 2024 and 28.1% in 2023.

4. Archetype and Conviction

Archetype Candidate: Defensive Operator / Cost-Resilient Recovery Rationale: The company fits the "Defensive Operator" archetype with elements of "Cost-Resilient Recovery." The business is essential infrastructure, yet it operates in a high-risk environment. The archetype is defined by its ability to maintain service (82% restoration rate) and manage rising input costs (electricity up 19.5%) while simultaneously reducing specific war-related overheads (security/fuel down to $34M).

Conviction Stack:

• Thesis Strength: Low. No secular thesis is active.
• Evidence Quality: High. The 2026-03-16 filings provide granular data on network damage, restoration, and specific cost line items.
• Structural Quality: Unknown. The technical setup is missing.
• Rerating Potential: Dependent on the resolution of the "Roam Like at Home" revenue drag and the sustainability of the cost reductions.

Valuation & ATR Context:

5. Invalidations, Strengtheners, and Gaps

What Would Invalidate:

• Fundamental: A significant acceleration in network damage that exceeds the 82% restoration rate, or a failure to secure fuel/power for the 3,740 generators.
• Regulatory: A steeper-than-expected decline in roaming revenue that management cannot offset through volume growth.

What Would Strengthen:

• Fundamental: Further reduction in security/mitigation costs below the $34M level, or a successful offset of the "Roam Like at Home" revenue decline through new digital service adoption.

Gaps in Evidence:

• Financial Metrics: While cost line items are provided, specific revenue figures, net income, or EBITDA margins for 2025 are not explicitly detailed in the provided evidence block, making a full valuation assessment impossible.
• Forward Guidance: No specific management guidance on 2026 revenue targets or capex plans beyond the "Roam Like at Home" impact is provided in the evidence.

PRIVATE ANALYST CALL

Judgment: Hold Confidence: low Key evidence: 82% of damaged network restored as of Dec 31, 2025; security and mitigation costs reduced to $34M in 2025 from $49M in 2024; $10M insurance payout received in Q4 2025. Key risks: "Roam Like at Home" regulation continuing to decline revenue rates; 19.5% increase in blended electricity tariff in 2025; missing technical setup data prevents risk quantification. Expected path: Management expects revenue headwinds from roaming regulation to persist; operational resilience remains high with continued generator and battery deployment. Expected horizon: Indefinite until technical setup forms or fundamental catalysts emerge.