JOBY

ANALYST NOTE: JOBY AVIATION, INC. DATE: 2026-06-13 SUBJECT: Structural Setup Analysis & Business Fundamentals

1. Structural Readiness

Current State: Forming

• Current Price: $10.00
• Aggressive Entry (Pre-Breakout): $10.22 (Note: This is a forming-coil entry level, not a confirmed breakout entry).
• Breakout Level (Resistance): $20.95 (Price must close above this level to confirm the setup).
• Extension: None recorded.
• Volatility Context: Current ATR is 7.4% (Very High). This indicates elevated intraday volatility, which impacts position sizing but does not alter the structural classification.

2. Thesis Layer

Thesis Classification: TACTICAL / SETUP-LED Macro Context: There is NO named secular thesis attached to this setup as of 2026-06-13. The investment case is not driven by a broad macro theme or a specific named secular trend at this moment. The conviction must be derived entirely from the quality of the technical setup (the forming coil) and the underlying business fundamentals. Do not invent a thesis; judge the name strictly on the setup quality and the operational evidence provided in the filings.

3. Business Fundamentals

Company Profile: Joby Aviation, Inc. is a vertically integrated air mobility firm specializing in the development of electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft. The company operates from Santa Cruz, California, with a business model focused on launching an on-demand aerial ridesharing service, aircraft sales to distributors, and expansion into defense markets.

Operational Milestones (as of May 2026):

• Regulatory Progress: The company successfully completed its SR3 audit with the FAA in the quarter ended March 31, 2026, a milestone described as "years in the making." Management states that five selected programs (covering 11 states including Texas, New York, and Florida) are in the process of finalizing Over-The-Air (OTA) agreements with the FAA and the Department of Transportation.
• Production Capacity: Joby is producing parts for its ninth conforming aircraft. To support this, the company is adding a third shift to its composites layup and automated fiber placement teams.
• Commercial Launch: Management explicitly stated in the May 5, 2026 earnings transcript that they are targeting carrying their first passengers in 2026. They indicated that agreements would start being signed in Q3 2026, with operations commencing in the back half of the year.
• Revenue Generation: For the first time, the company reported revenue of $24.2 million for the three months ended March 31, 2026, up from $0 in the prior year period. This revenue is attributed to passenger service revenue from the Blade offering (post-acquisition), engineering services to third parties, and rental income from third-party leasing.
• Strategic Partnerships:
• Toyota: Toyota invested $250 million in May 2025 under a stock purchase agreement committing up to $500 million total.
• Delta: Delta exercised 7,000,000 warrants at $10 per share in January 2026.
• International: Signed an MOU with Abdul Latif Jameel for up to 200 aircraft ($1B value) and a letter of intent with Alatau Advance Air Group ($250M value).

4. Archetype and Conviction

Archetype: Quality Compounder Rationale: The company fits the "Quality Compounder" archetype due to its vertically integrated manufacturing capability, the strategic capital infusion from Toyota, and the progression from R&D to early commercial revenue. The completion of the SR3 audit and the move toward passenger operations suggest a transition from a pure development stage to an operational growth stage.

Valuation & Financial Context:

• Financial Spine: The company remains in a pre-profitability phase. Forward consensus EPS for FY1 is projected at -$0.82 and FY2 at -$0.81.
• Liquidity: The company raised $576.3 million in equity and $669.8 million in convertible notes in February 2026, providing a substantial cash runway to support the 2026 passenger launch targets.
• Conviction Stack:
• *Thesis Strength:* Low (No named secular thesis; purely tactical).
• *Evidence Quality:* High (Multiple primary sources from earnings and SEC filings confirming regulatory and production milestones).
• *Setup Readiness:* Partial (69% historical breakout probability for this structure).
• *Rerating Potential:* Dependent on the successful execution of the 2026 passenger launch and the clearing of the $20.95 resistance level.

5. Invalidations, Strengtheners, and Gaps

Invalidation Triggers:

• Fundamental: Failure to secure the OTA agreements for the 11-state program or a delay in the "first passenger" target beyond the back half of 2026.

Strengtheners:

• Technical: A confirmed close above the breakout level of $20.95.
• Fundamental: Confirmation of signed OTA agreements or the execution of the first commercial passenger flight.

Evidence Gaps:

• Unit Economics: While revenue is now $24.2M, there is no specific data in the provided evidence regarding the unit economics (cost per flight vs. revenue per flight) or the path to gross margin positivity.
• Cash Burn Rate: The evidence confirms cash raised but does not explicitly state the current quarterly burn rate or the exact runway remaining post-February 2026 offering.
• Operational Scale: The "ninth conforming aircraft" is a specific milestone, but the evidence does not detail the total production capacity or the rate of aircraft delivery required to meet the 200-aircraft MOU with Abdul Latif Jameel.

PRIVATE ANALYST CALL

Judgment: Speculative Confidence: medium Key evidence: Completed SR3 FAA audit and production of ninth conforming aircraft; $1.2B+ capital raised in early 2026 to fund operations; Revenue of $24.2M generated in Q1 2026 from Blade and services. Key risks: Technical structure remains unconfirmed (forming coil) with high volatility (7.4% ATR); Regulatory execution risk on OTA agreements for 11 states; Company remains unprofitable with negative forward EPS consensus. Sizing hint: Position size should be reduced relative to confirmed breakouts due to the "forming" status and high ATR; treat as a partial allocation pending breakout confirmation. Expected path: Management expects to sign OTA agreements in Q3 2026 and begin operations in the back half of the year; price action likely to remain range-bound or volatile until the $20.95 resistance is tested or invalidated. Expected horizon: 3 to 6 months to see a definitive breakout or invalidation signal.