EVLV

ANALYST NOTE: EVOLV TECHNOLOGIES HOLDINGS, INC. (EVLV) Date: June 13, 2026

1. Structural Readiness

Current State: Forming

• Conservative Entry: Not available (requires confirmed breakout).
• Aggressive Entry: $5.89 (Pre-breakout / forming entry).
• Breakout Level: $8.91 (Resistance to clear for confirmation).
• Extension: None (Price is within the base range).
• Volatility Context: Current ATR is 5.7% (High). This indicates elevated volatility, which is a key input for position sizing but does not alter the structural classification.

2. Thesis Layer

Thesis Status: TACTICAL / Setup-Led Macro Context: As of June 13, 2026, there is no named secular thesis attached to this specific setup in the current data layer. This is a tactical, setup-led name. The conviction must be derived entirely from the quality of the structural setup (the Coil) and the underlying business fundamentals reported in the most recent filings. No external macro narrative should be invented to support the trade; the trade is justified by the alignment of price structure and verified operational execution.

3. Business Fundamentals

Company Overview: Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc. operates in the Technology sector, providing automated security screening solutions. The company offers two core hardware and software solutions: Evolv Express (for screening high volumes of people for concealed threats) and Evolv eXpedite (for automated bag screening without X-ray operators).

Business Model & Industry: The company operates on a "purchase subscription model" for hardware, moving away from one-time equipment sales. This model generates Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) and Remaining Performance Obligation (RPO). The industry context involves security screening for schools, healthcare, sports venues, and industrial workplaces.

Key Evidence (Source Date: May 12, 2026):

• Revenue Growth: Management raised full-year revenue guidance to $175 million – $180 million, representing 20% to 23% year-over-year growth.
• Recurring Revenue: The company expects to exit 2026 with ARR of $145 million – $150 million, up 20% to 25% year-over-year. As of March 31, 2026, ARR was $127.3 million, up from $106.0 million a year prior.
• Backlog Strength: Remaining Performance Obligation (RPO) stood at $299.0 million as of March 31, 2026, an 18% year-over-year increase, reflecting strong end-market demand.
• Deployment Scale: Management stated they are on track to deploy over 10,000 units by the end of 2026.
• Customer Base: The company serves over 30 Fortune 500 companies and has expanded its "expedite" customer base to over 75 customers (6% of the total base), up from 1% a year ago.
• Profitability: Adjusted EBITDA for the three months ended March 31, 2026, was $3.9 million, an improvement of $1.9 million year-over-year compared to $2.1 million in the prior period.
• Supply Chain: A non-exclusive contract manufacturing agreement with Plexus Corp. (entered November 5, 2025) is now in effect to enhance scalability and operational resiliency. The previous agreement with Columbia Tech expired December 31, 2025.

4. Archetype and Conviction

Archetype: Growth Leader Rationale: The company fits the "Growth Leader" archetype based on the consistent double-digit growth in ARR (20%+), the expansion of the RPO backlog, and the successful transition to a subscription-based revenue model. The shift to a "purchase subscription model" and the partnership with Plexus Corp. indicate a maturing business focused on scalability and recurring cash flows rather than one-off hardware sales.

Conviction Stack:

• Thesis Strength: Moderate (Tactical/Setup-led; no external macro thesis).
• Evidence Quality: High. The May 12, 2026 earnings transcript and SEC filings provide concrete, quantitative data on revenue, ARR, RPO, and EBITDA.
• Setup Readiness: Partial. The setup requires a close above $8.91 to become a "Confirmed" setup.
• Valuation/Financial Spine: The company is demonstrating a path to profitability (positive Adjusted EBITDA) while maintaining high growth rates. The "normalized" revenue profile expected in H2 '26 suggests the company is stabilizing after a period of pricing and fulfillment adjustments.

ATR Context: The current ATR of 5.7% falls into the "High" bucket (4–6% historical sweet spot). This suggests the stock is volatile enough to offer meaningful moves but not in the "Extreme" (>8%) danger zone associated with severe losers. This volatility supports the "Forming" nature of the coil, allowing for the necessary consolidation before a potential breakout.

5. Invalidations, Strengths, and Gaps

What Would Invalidate:

• Fundamental Deterioration: A significant miss on the raised guidance ($175M–$180M) or a contraction in ARR/RPO in the next reporting period would undermine the "Growth Leader" thesis.

What Would Strengthen:

• Price Action: A confirmed breakout and close above $8.91.
• Fundamental Confirmation: Continued acceleration in the "expedite" customer base or a further expansion of the 10,000-unit deployment target.

Evidence Gaps:

• No Disconfirming Evidence: The provided evidence block contains no negative data points or disconfirming filings as of the event date.
• Missing Data: There is no specific data on gross margin trends post-Plexus transition or specific customer churn rates in the provided text, though the RPO growth suggests low churn.

PRIVATE ANALYST CALL

Judgment: Speculative Confidence: medium Key risks: Price has not yet cleared the $8.91 breakout level; Current ATR is high (5.7%) indicating volatility risk; Setup is "forming" not "confirmed," meaning ~31% of similar historical setups fail to break out; Transition to subscription model execution risk. Sizing hint: Position size should be reduced relative to a confirmed breakout setup due to the "forming" state and high volatility; treat as a partial allocation. Expected path: Management expects normalized revenue in H2 '26; if the 10,000 unit deployment target is met, the structural setup may resolve to the upside. Expected horizon: 3 to 6 months for the setup to resolve (breakout or invalidation).