CCEP

Analyst Note: CCEP (Coca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC)

Date: 2026-06-13 Current Price: 96.93

1. Structural Readiness

Conservative Entry: Not yet defined (awaiting breakout confirmation) Aggressive/Pre-Breakout Entry: N/A (Structure is in place, but price has not yet fired the breakout signal) Breakout Level: Not yet fired. Current Price: 96.93 Extension: — ATR Current: 2.1% (Sub-threshold volatility)

Analysis of Setup:

2. Thesis Layer

Thesis Classification: Tactical / Setup-Led Secular Thesis: None named at this date.

This is a TACTICAL, setup-led name. There is no named macro or secular thesis attached to CCEP in the current evidence base for this specific date. The investment case must be judged strictly on the quality of the structural setup (the forming coil) and the underlying business fundamentals as reported by management. We do not invent a thesis; we evaluate the company's execution and the technical structure on its own merits.

3. Business Overview

Company: Coca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC (CCEP) Industry: Beverage Bottling / Distribution Business Model: CCEP operates under bottler agreements with The Coca-Cola Company (TCCC) and other franchisors. The company purchases concentrates and syrups to manufacture, distribute, and sell beverages to customers and vending partners across 31 markets.

Key Operational Metrics (as of source dates ≤ 2026-06-13):

• Scale: The company serves an estimated 600 million consumers locally and creates value for 4 million customers.
• Revenue Performance: In the most recent full year reported (FY2025 context), reported revenue increased by 2.3% (2.8% on an adjusted comparable and FX-neutral basis). Volumes were broadly flat, while revenue per unit case increased by 2.9%, driven by pricing and mix.
• Profitability: Reported operating profit increased by 31.0%, reflecting a full year of Philippines profit in 2025 and lower business transformation costs. On an adjusted comparable and FX-neutral basis, operating profit grew by 7.1%.
• Portfolio Strength: The portfolio includes sparkling drinks, water, isotonic options, teas, coffees, juices, and energy drinks. Notably, Monster Energy volumes were up nearly 20% in 2025, driving share gains of over 200 basis points.
• Digital & Logistics: The company's direct-to-consumer platform, MyCCEP.com, generated approximately €2.38 billion in 2025. Additionally, the company placed over 75,000 units in Europe in 2025 and has committed to expanding its fleet over the next five years.
• Capital Allocation: Management announced a further EUR 1 billion share buyback to be executed over the coming year.

4. Archetype and Conviction

Archetype: Quality Compounder Fit Rationale: CCEP fits the Quality Compounder archetype due to its consistent ability to grow revenue per unit case (pricing power) and operating profit (efficiency) despite flat volume growth. The business demonstrates resilience with a robust category position, a diverse portfolio (including high-growth segments like Monster and ARTD), and a clear commitment to shareholder returns via buybacks.

Valuation & Financial Spine: The financial spine indicates a "complete" coverage with forward consensus EPS of 4.45 for FY1 and 4.87 for FY2. This suggests a stable earnings trajectory that supports the compounder narrative.

Conviction Stack:

• Thesis Strength: Low (Tactical only; no macro thesis).
• Evidence Quality: High. Multiple primary sources (earnings transcripts, SEC filings) confirm strong operational metrics, including 31% operating profit growth and 20% Monster volume growth.
• Structural Quality: Moderate. The "Forming" coil indicates a healthy consolidation, but the sub-threshold ATR (2.1%) suggests a lack of immediate momentum.
• Setup Readiness: Partial. The structure is in place, but the breakout has not fired.
• Rerating Potential: Dependent on the successful breakout of the forming coil and continued execution of the buyback program.

5. Invalidations, Strengths, and Gaps

What Would Strengthen the Case:

• Breakout Confirmation: A daily close above the resistance level of the forming coil, accompanied by a volume spike.
• Management Guidance: Confirmation that the 3-4% revenue growth and 1.5% cost growth targets are being met or exceeded in subsequent quarters.
• Volume Recovery: A shift from "broadly flat" volumes to positive volume growth, indicating market share gains beyond the Monster segment.

What Would Invalidate the Case:

• Guidance Miss: Management lowering the revenue growth guidance below the 3-4% range or increasing cost growth expectations beyond 1.5% per case.
• Buyback Halt: Any indication that the EUR 1 billion buyback program is paused or cancelled.

Gaps in Evidence:

• Breakout Level: The specific price point required to confirm the breakout is not yet established.
• Macro Context: No specific macroeconomic thesis (e.g., FX headwinds/tailwinds, inflation data) is provided to contextualize the "FX neutral" growth figures beyond the company's own reporting.

PRIVATE ANALYST CALL

Judgment: Hold Confidence: medium Key evidence: Forming coil structure with price holding above implied support; 31% operating profit growth driven by Philippines inclusion and efficiency; Monster volume up nearly 20% driving share gains; EUR 1 billion buyback announced. Sizing hint: Position size should be conservative given the "forming" state and sub-threshold volatility; wait for breakout confirmation before adding. Expected path: Management expects 3-4% revenue growth and 1.5% cost growth; the company is investing in fleet expansion and digital channels; buyback execution will continue over the coming year. Expected horizon: 3 to 6 months for the forming coil to resolve into a breakout or invalidation.