AYA

Analyst Note: Aya Gold & Silver Inc. (AYA) Date: 2026-06-13

(1) Structural Readiness As of the close on 2026-06-13, AYA presents a confirmed coil setup. The conservative entry level for this structure is $25.07. The current price is $25.20, representing an extension of +0.5% above the conservative entry. The breakout has fired, and the setup is currently active. The ATR at the time of the breakout was 6.0% (High bucket), and the current ATR is 5.9% (High bucket). This volatility profile indicates a structural quality consistent with the historical "high" sweet spot for momentum setups, suggesting active participation and sizing capacity. The setup is not forming; it is confirmed.

(2) The Thesis Layer At this date, AYA is classified as a TACTICAL, setup-led name. There is no named secular thesis attached to this specific setup in the current evidence base. Consequently, the investment case must be judged strictly on the quality of the technical setup (the confirmed coil) and the immediate business fundamentals provided in the recent earnings and operational updates. No macro or thematic thesis should be inferred or invented to support the position.

(3) The Business Aya Gold & Silver Inc. operates as a precious metals mining company with a portfolio of assets in the Kingdom of Morocco. The company's core business model involves the procurement, investigation, and enhancement of mineral-rich landholdings, specifically focusing on silver and gold production.

Key operational and financial data points recorded by management as of the Q1 2026 earnings transcript (2026-03-31) include:

• Production Guidance: Management forecasts 2026 production between 6.2 million and 6.8 million ounces of silver.
• Cost Structure: The company reports a mine plan with an average cash cost of approximately $21 per ounce for 2026. A longer-term mine plan (11 years) accounts for 6 million ounces annually with an average cash cost of $16.26 and an All-In Sustaining Cost (AISC) of around $19.
• Asset Base: The company holds significant resources, with the Boumadine project reported at 450 million ounces of silver equivalent (noting that this figure is being updated to incorporate 2025 drill results).
• Operational Sites: The portfolio includes key sites such as Zgounder, Boumadine, Imiter bis, Amizmiz, Azegour, Tirzzit, and Tijirit.
• Recent Operations: As of the Q2 2026 production report (2026-06-28), the company announced record quarterly production and mining rates at its Zgounder Silver Mine.

(4) The Archetype and Conviction The company fits the Quality Compounder archetype. This classification is supported by the evidence of a scalable mine plan, low-cost production profiles, and a history of reserve growth (Boumadine resource updates).

• Valuation Context: The financial spine indicates a forward consensus EPS of $1.39 for FY1 and $1.60 for FY2. Coverage is noted as "partial," suggesting the market is pricing in growth but may lack full consensus on the long-term margin expansion.
• Conviction Stack:
• Thesis Strength: Moderate. The lack of a named secular thesis limits the "story" to the immediate setup and operational execution.
• Evidence Quality: High. Recent earnings transcripts provide specific, quantified guidance on production volumes and costs.
• Structural Quality: High. The ATR at breakout (6.0%) and current ATR (5.9%) place the stock in the "high" volatility bucket, which is historically a positive signal for setup quality, provided the price holds.
• Setup Readiness: Confirmed. The coil has fired, and the stock is trading above the conservative entry.
• Rerating Potential: Supported by the recent addition to the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) announced on 2026-06-16 (note: this event date is in the future relative to the analysis date of 06-13, but the *announcement* of the inclusion process or the *expectation* of inclusion is the relevant context for the setup momentum). *Correction:* The evidence [E13] is dated 2026-06-16, which is *after* the event date of 2026-06-13. Therefore, as of 2026-06-13, the ETF inclusion is not yet confirmed in the evidence base. The conviction relies on the operational momentum and the confirmed coil, not the ETF inclusion.

(5) Invalidations, Strengtheners, and Gaps

• What would Strengthen the Case: Continued adherence to the 6.2–6.8 million ounce production guidance; successful completion of the Boumadine feasibility study; and confirmation of the AISC staying near the $19 target.
• What would Invalidate the Case: A significant deviation from the production guidance (e.g., missing the 6.2 million ounce floor); a material increase in cash costs or AISC that erodes the margin profile; or a breakdown of the confirmed coil structure (price closing significantly below the entry level with high volume).
• Gaps in Evidence:
• ETF Inclusion: The evidence [E13] regarding the addition to the VanEck GDX ETF is dated 2026-06-16. As of 2026-06-13, this event has not occurred. The analyst cannot cite this as a current catalyst, only as a potential future development.
• Sulfur Market: While management notes sulfur prices rising to $500/tonne (E5), the direct impact on AYA's specific cost structure or revenue mix is not fully quantified in the provided evidence, leaving the "sulfur" thesis as a qualitative observation rather than a quantified financial driver.
• Financial Spine: The coverage is "partial," meaning full analyst consensus on the long-term EPS trajectory is not yet established.

PRIVATE ANALYST CALL

Judgment: Buy Confidence: medium Key evidence: Confirmed coil breakout with price above conservative entry; Management guidance for 6.2-6.8M oz production with low AISC of $19; High ATR (6.0%) indicating strong structural volatility. Key risks: Partial financial spine coverage limiting consensus visibility; Future-dated evidence (ETF inclusion) not yet realized as of event date; Potential for production misses against guidance. Rating boundary: The rating is a Buy rather than a Strong Buy because the financial spine coverage is partial and the ETF inclusion catalyst is not yet confirmed as of the event date, leaving some uncertainty on the immediate rerating trigger. It is not a Hold because the setup is confirmed and the operational guidance is robust. Sizing hint: Position size should reflect the high ATR volatility; standard sizing for a confirmed coil in the high bucket. Expected path: Management expectations for 2026 production to be met, driving cash flow generation and supporting the current valuation multiple. Expected horizon: 3 to 6 months, aligned with the quarterly production cycle and feasibility study updates. Failure mode to watch: A sustained close below the $25.07 conservative entry level, which would indicate the confirmed coil structure has failed.