AMPL

ANALYST NOTE: AMPLITUDE, INC. (AMPL) DATE: 2026-06-13 CURRENT PRICE: $6.53

1. Structural Readiness

Conservative Entry: Not yet defined (awaiting confirmed breakout) Aggressive/Pre-Breakout Entry: N/A (Current price is not at a defined entry level for a confirmed breakout; price is holding above support but has not triggered the entry signal) Breakout Level: Not yet defined. Current Price: $6.53 Extension: Not applicable (Price is not extending from a confirmed breakout). ATR Context: Current ATR is 7.0% (Very High). This indicates elevated volatility, which increases the risk of whipsaws during the formation phase and suggests that any future breakout will require significant volume to sustain.

2. Thesis Layer

Thesis Classification: TACTICAL / Setup-Led Secular Thesis: None named at this date. Analysis: As of 2026-06-13, Amplitude is not being evaluated based on a specific macro or secular narrative (e.g., "AI Revolution" or "Cloud Migration"). The investment case is strictly setup-led, relying on the quality of the technical structure (the forming coil) combined with the underlying business fundamentals. We are judging the name on its ability to execute its growth strategy and the structural integrity of its price action, rather than a broad market tailwind.

3. Business Overview

Company Description: Amplitude, Inc. operates as a leading AI Analytics Platform. The company provides a cloud-based, subscription-service (SaaS) model designed to help businesses understand how people use their digital products to improve user experience, drive acquisition, monetization, and retention. Business Model: The company derives 98% of its revenue from subscription services. It serves over 4,900 paying customers, including 27 of the Fortune 100. Key Metrics (as of Q1 2026 / FY 2025):

• Revenue: Q1 2026 revenue was $94 million, up 17% year-over-year.
• ARR: Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) was $374 million, up 17% year-over-year and up $9 million sequentially.
• Customer Growth:
• Total paying customers grew 24% year-over-year to 4,797 (as of Dec 31, 2025).
• Customers with >$100k ARR grew 18% year-over-year to 727.
• Customers with >$1.0m ARR grew 33% year-over-year to 56.
• Retention: Dollar-based net retention rate (DBNR) for TTM was 105% as of March 31, 2026, up from 98% the prior year.
• Backlog: Unrecognized transaction price related to remaining performance obligations was $427.4 million as of March 31, 2026.
• Product Suite: Includes Amplitude Analytics, Amplitude Recommend (codeless personalization), and Amplitude Experiment (A/B testing).
• Strategic Context: Management notes the acquisition of Statsig, which is expected to contribute $5 million to $7 million to revenue in 2026.

4. Archetype and Conviction

Archetype: Margin Inflector Rationale: The company fits the "Margin Inflector" archetype due to its high gross margins (implied by the SaaS model and 98% subscription revenue) and its focus on operational efficiency through AI-driven analytics. The growth in high-value customers (>$1.0m ARR up 33%) and the improvement in net retention (98% to 105%) suggest the business is successfully scaling without proportionally increasing costs, a hallmark of margin inflection. Valuation Context: The financial spine indicates a forward consensus EPS of $0.050414 for FY1 and $0.1356 for FY2. This suggests the market is pricing in a path to profitability, though the current price of $6.53 implies a valuation that is sensitive to the execution of these earnings targets. Conviction Stack:

• Thesis Strength: Low (No named secular thesis; purely tactical).
• Evidence Quality: High (Strong, consistent growth in ARR, customer count, and retention; clear management guidance).
• Structural Quality: Moderate (ATR is "Very High" at 7.0%, indicating volatility risk; setup is "Forming" rather than "Confirmed").
• Setup Readiness: Partial (Price is holding above support, but breakout has not fired).
• Rerating Potential: Moderate (Dependent on the successful integration of Statsig and continued ARR growth).

5. Invalidations, Strengths, and Gaps

What Would Strengthen: A confirmed breakout above the resistance level of the forming coil, accompanied by volume, would confirm the setup. Continued beat-and-raise guidance in the next earnings report would further strengthen the fundamental case. Gaps in Evidence:

• Profitability Timeline: While forward EPS is projected, the specific timeline for sustained GAAP profitability is not detailed in the provided evidence.
• Statsig Integration: The specific impact of the Statsig acquisition on margins (beyond the revenue contribution) is not quantified in the provided text.

PRIVATE ANALYST CALL

Judgment: Speculative Confidence: medium Key evidence: Q1 2026 revenue up 17% YoY to $94M; ARR up 17% YoY to $374M; DBNR improved to 105% from 98%; 33% growth in >$1.0M ARR customers. Key risks: Very high ATR (7.0%) suggests elevated volatility and whipsaw risk; setup is forming, not confirmed; no named secular thesis to support a premium multiple; reliance on Statsig integration for growth. Sizing hint: Position size should be reduced relative to a confirmed breakout due to the "forming" status and high volatility. Expected path: Management expects revenue growth of 17-18% for 2026; if the forming coil resolves to the upside, the stock may re-rate on the margin inflection narrative. Expected horizon: 3 to 6 months for the setup to resolve (breakout or invalidation).